US Fed Continues to "Hold Its Ground", Metals Rise Across the Board, LME Nickel Leads the Gains, NY Silver Falls Over 1% [Overnight Market]

SMM June 19 Report:

Metal Market:

Overnight, domestic market base metals generally rose, with SHFE tin up 0.27%. SHFE copper fell slightly. SHFE nickel rose 0.6%. SHFE lead and SHFE aluminum rose slightly, while SHFE zinc fell 0.18%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.41%, and the most-traded continuous aluminum futures for casting rose 0.76%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.29%, stainless steel up 0.6%, rebar up 0.13%, and HRC up 0.13%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.82%, and coke fell 0.84%.

Overnight, in the overseas metal market, LME base metals generally rose, with LME copper down 0.19%, LME aluminum down 0.16%, LME lead up 0.68%, LME zinc up 0.19%, LME tin up 0.14%, and LME nickel up 1.15%.

Overnight, in the precious metals market: COMEX gold fell 0.6%; COMEX silver fell 1.05%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.35%, and SHFE silver fell 0.47%.

As of 8:06 on June 19, overnight closing prices

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Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[The Central Financial Commission Issues the "Opinions on Supporting the Accelerated Construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center"] According to Xinhua News Agency, in order to implement the deployment requirements of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee to "accelerate the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center" and the Central Financial Work Conference to "enhance the competitiveness and influence of the Shanghai International Financial Center," the Central Financial Commission recently issued the "Opinions on Supporting the Accelerated Construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). The Opinions point out that, currently and in the period ahead, accelerating the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center should be guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, always adhering to the "eight principles," following the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, firmly grasping the requirements of enhancing competitiveness and influence, taking the deepening of financial system reform as the driving force, improving financial internationalization as the breakthrough, and focusing on building a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics. It is necessary to solidly accomplish the "five major tasks" of financial services for the real economy, strengthen the coordinated development of the "five centers," strengthen financial supervision and risk prevention and control, and cultivate a financial culture with Chinese characteristics, so as to make greater contributions to creating a new situation in financial work and advancing Chinese-style modernization. The Opinions clarify that after five to ten years of construction, the energy level of the Shanghai International Financial Center will be comprehensively enhanced, the adaptability, competitiveness, and inclusiveness of the modern financial system will be significantly improved, the function of Shanghai as a hub for financial opening-up will be significantly strengthened, and the status of Shanghai as a global RMB asset allocation center and risk management center will be significantly enhanced, basically building an international financial center that matches China's comprehensive national strength and international influence.

[CSRC: Will Allow Qualified Foreign Investors to Participate in On-Exchange ETF Options Trading Starting from October 9, 2025]The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) recently announced that, after consultation with the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, it will allow qualified foreign investors to participate in on-exchange ETF options trading starting from October 9, 2025, with the trading purpose limited to hedging. This is one of the specific measures taken by the CSRC to implement the decision-making arrangements of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee to "optimize the qualified foreign investor system." Since the beginning of this year, the CSRC has successively relaxed restrictions on qualified foreign investors' participation in domestic commodity futures, commodity options, and ETF options, among other products. This move aims to continuously expand the investable scope for qualified foreign investors, leverage the advantages and attractiveness of the qualified foreign investor system, and facilitate the use of appropriate risk management tools by foreign institutional investors, particularly allocation-focused funds. It is conducive to enhancing the stability of foreign investment behavior and promoting their long-term investment in A-shares. Subsequently, the CSRC will also introduce more reform measures to optimize the qualified foreign investor system, vigorously advancing the high-level institutional opening-up of the capital market.

[SHFE: Adds Natural Rubber, Lead, and Tin Futures and Options Contracts for Foreign Investors to Trade]The SHFE issued an announcement to further expand the scope of commodity futures and options trading available to qualified foreign investors. Starting from the trading session on June 20, 2025 (i.e., the night session on June 19), the Shanghai Futures Exchange will further expand the range of tradable varieties for qualified foreign institutional investors and RMB qualified foreign institutional investors (collectively referred to as qualified foreign investors), adding the following commodity futures and options contracts for trading: 1. Natural rubber, lead, and tin futures contracts. 2. Natural rubber, lead, and tin options contracts.

[Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: Adds Glass, Soda Ash, and Ferrosilicon Futures and Options Contracts for Foreign Investors to Trade]The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that, starting from the trading session on June 20, 2025 (i.e., the night session on June 19), it will expand the range of tradable varieties for qualified foreign institutional investors and RMB qualified foreign institutional investors (collectively referred to as qualified foreign investors), adding the following commodity futures and options contracts for trading: 1. Glass, soda ash, and ferrosilicon futures contracts. 2. Glass, soda ash, and ferrosilicon options contracts.

[CPCA: 402,000 New Energy Passenger Vehicles Sold in China's National New Energy Vehicle Market from June 1-15, Up 38% YoY Compared to the Same Period in June Last Year]Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that from June 1-15, 402,000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in China's national new energy vehicle market, up 38% YoY compared to the same period in June last year and 0% MoM compared to the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 57%. Since the beginning of this year, a cumulative total of 4.76 million new energy vehicles have been sold, up 35% YoY. From June 1-15, 369,000 new energy vehicles were wholesaled by passenger vehicle producers nationwide, up 18% YoY compared to the same period in June last year and down 2% MoM compared to the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of national new energy producers was 51.7%. Since the beginning of this year, a cumulative total of 5.576 million new energy vehicles have been wholesaled, up 38% YoY.

US dollar:

The US dollar index rose 0.04% overnight, closing at 98.86. Early Thursday morning (June 19) Beijing time, the US Fed announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Fed policymakers indicated that borrowing costs could still decline this year, but the overall expected pace of future interest rate cuts has slowed due to the anticipated rise in inflation resulting from the Trump administration's tariff plans. The closely watched "dot plot" of interest rate forecasts showed that the median expectation for interest rates among 19 policymakers at the end of 2024 falls between 3.75% and 4.00%, implying a cumulative 50 basis point cut from current levels by year-end, in line with the March meeting outcome. Although Fed policymakers still anticipate a 50 basis point cut this year, as they did in March and December, they have slightly slowed the expected pace, with 25 basis point cuts each in 2026 and 2027 to restore inflation to the 2% target.

Other currencies:

On Tuesday (June 17), Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, released the eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for May. Overall inflation in the eurozone remained flat MoM in May and rose 1.9% YoY, in line with market expectations. Core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) rose 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY. Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco remained flat MoM and rose 2.3% YoY. Energy prices fell 1.2% MoM and 3.6% YoY, dragging on overall inflation. Prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco rose 0.4% MoM and 3.2% YoY. (Source: Huitong Finance)

Data:

Today, data including Australia's May RBA foreign exchange transactions - market channel, Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Australia's May change in employed persons, Switzerland's June central bank policy rate, China's May total electricity consumption - monthly, and the UK's June central bank benchmark rate will be released. Additionally, notable events include: the Fed's FOMC announcing its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections; Fed Chairman Powell holding a monetary policy press conference (repeated for emphasis); the Swiss National Bank announcing its interest rate decision; the Bank of England announcing its interest rate decision; and the 2025 Lujiazui Forum being held in Shanghai.

Crude oil:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 0.22% and Brent down 0.48%. The market is weighing the possibility of supply disruptions caused by the Iran-Israel conflict and potential direct US involvement.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US commercial crude oil inventories fell during the week ending June 13, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. During the week, US crude oil inventories dropped by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, exceeding market expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories fell to 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January. The capacity utilisation rate of US refineries declined by 1.1 percentage points to 93.2%. During the week, US gasoline inventories rose by 209,000 barrels to 230 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of a 600,000 barrel increase. Inventories of distillates, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 514,000 barrels to 109.4 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of a 400,000 barrel increase. (Webstock Inc.)